Promise and Challenges of the GERD

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) stands as one of Africa’s most ambitious infrastructure projects, with the potential to transform Ethiopia’s energy landscape and reshape regional power dynamics. Officially inaugurated on the 9^th of September 2025, amid national pride and celebration, the GERD symbolizes a landmark achievement in the country’s development journey. Once fully operational, GERD is expected to generate over 5,000 MW of electricity, which is more than twice Ethiopia’s current capacity. For Ethiopia, where nearly half the population continues to live without reliable electricity, the GERD represents far more than just additional megawatts. It embodies the country’s aspiration for energy security and sustainable development. GERD offers a living case study for scholars and practitioners to explore how large-scale renewable energy projects can address multidimensional energy poverty, foster industrialization, and accelerate socio-economic transformation.

The GERD’s significance extends far beyond Ethiopia’s borders. By exporting electricity to neighboring countries such as Sudan, Djibouti, Kenya, and South Sudan, Ethiopia has the potential to become a regional energy hub. Affordable, clean energy trade could foster economic interdependence, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and strengthen cooperation across the Horn of Africa. These objectives are closely aligned with Agenda 2063 of the AU and the SDGs, particularly SDG 7. At the same time, GERD underscores the complexities of transboundary water governance. Specifically, the ongoing tensions with Egypt and Sudan illustrate the delicate balance between national sovereignty, resource management, and regional diplomacy. This raises the question: can hydro diplomacy be effectively leveraged to promote peace and shared prosperity in the region?

Looking forward, GERD challenges scholars, practitioners, and policymakers alike to address the interconnected food–water–energy nexus. In this regard, research is needed to explore how large hydropower projects interact with climate variability, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem sustainability. Also, policymakers must adopt inclusive strategies to ensure that the benefits of GERD reach rural households, urban economies, and marginalized communities alike. If harnessed wisely, GERD can be a cornerstone not only of Ethiopia’s green growth pathway but also of a more cooperative and sustainable future for the region. The question here is no longer whether GERD will generate power, but whether Ethiopia and its neighbors will generate the political will to turn that power into shared progress.